Latest GDP Report: The US Growth Rate and What It Means
GDP is the broadest measure of the US economy. It is released quarterly, and each quarter is estimated more than once — this page shows the current estimate and the two years before it.
Next release: Oct 29 · In 18 days
— Latest reading
— About this report
The figure here is the change in real, inflation-adjusted GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate: the pace the economy would grow over a full year if that quarter’s growth continued. That annualizing is why a single quarter can swing sharply.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes an advance estimate roughly a month after the quarter ends, then revises it in the following months. When the latest number on this page is a revision, it is labelled as one.
Markets often react to GDP less than to monthly data, because jobs, spending and production reports have already given a running preview of the quarter. The surprises that do move markets tend to be large ones.
— What a move tends to mean
These rules of thumb describe how markets have tended to react when a reading comes in above or below economists’ forecasts. Market North does not publish forecasts — the comparison on this page is with the previous reading, which is not the same thing.
GDP Growth
Steady growth supports corporate earnings; but if it overheats and stokes tightening fears, the upside is discounted.
- ▲Steady growth → bullish
- ▲Overheating → bullish turns neutral
— Beyond stocks
Steady growth has generally supported corporate earnings and stocks. Growth strong enough to revive inflation worries can push yields up instead, which has tended to weigh on gold.
RelatedWhy Rising Treasury Yields Weigh on GoldHow Real Interest Rates Move Gold and Silver
— Recent readings
| Period | Reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.2% | −0.27pp |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5% | +2.28pp |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2% | −3.67pp |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9% | −0.14pp |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0% | +3.88pp |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% | −2.26pp |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% | −0.75pp |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2% | −0.43pp |
Figures from FRED (BLS / BEA data); release dates from FRED’s release calendar. Agencies occasionally reschedule — the official announcement always takes precedence.
Education only — not investment advice. The directional notes describe general tendencies, not predictions: the same data can move markets differently depending on context. Figures come from FRED and are labelled with the period they cover and the date they were published.