Beginner's Guide · Read the direction behind the numbers
What Moves Gold
Gold pays no yield; its rivals are interest rates and the dollar. At the same time it is the haven of choice in a crisis. Its logic often runs opposite to stocks.
Bullish · Latest move favorableBearish · Latest move unfavorableTwo-way · Depends on context (see card)
Card colour reflects whether the latest move helps or hurts this asset · ↻ Tap a card for its definition & impact · ⓘ Hover for a quick note
Gold pays no yield; its rivals are interest rates and the dollar. At the same time it is the haven of choice in a crisis. Its logic often runs opposite to stocks.
Remember gold’s three traits: ① a non-yielding asset → the higher rates go, the less appealing it is; ② priced in dollars → a stronger dollar means weaker gold; ③ the ultimate safe haven → the more chaos, the more buyers.
— Rates & the Dollar (most critical)
Real Interest Rate
Current
2.55%
Nominal rate minus inflation
Prev. 2.46% · +0.09pp
As of Sep 10
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Real Interest Rate
The higher the real rate, the greater the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. This is gold's number-one driver.
▲Real rate up → bearish for gold
▼Down / turns negative → strongly bullish
Read the full explanation →Broad Dollar Index
Current
118.07
Range-bound
Prev. 118.13 · −0.05
As of Sep 4
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Broad Dollar Index
Gold is priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold pricier in other currencies, dampening demand.
Fed Hikes · Yields
Current
4.95%
Cost of holding gold
Prev. 4.83% · +0.12pp
As of Sep 10
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Fed Hikes · Yields
Higher rates raise the cost of holding gold; money prefers yield-bearing assets.
Inflation Expectations
Current
2.36%
A double-edged sword
Prev. 2.40% · −0.04pp
As of Sep 11
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Inflation Expectations
Rising inflation usually helps gold (an inflation hedge). But if it triggers more aggressive hikes, that pushes back via the rates channel.
▲Mild inflation → bullish (a hedge)
▲Triggers aggressive hikes → turns bearish
Read the full explanation →— Safe-Haven Demand & Supply
War · Systemic Risk
Current
Risk elevated
Safe-haven buyingSample
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War · Systemic Risk
This is gold’s biggest divergence from stocks. The more chaos, the more haven buying.
▲Risk / fear up → bullish for gold
▼Calm → haven flows recede · bearish
Central Bank Buying
Current
Net buying
Long-term supportSample
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Central Bank Buying
Sustained central-bank accumulation as reserves has been a key long-term support for gold in recent years.
▲Faster accumulation → bullish
▼Turns to net selling → bearish
ETF · Physical Demand
Current
Mild inflows
Investment + physical demandSample
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ETF · Physical Demand
ETF holdings reflect investment demand; festival and wedding seasons in India and China drive physical demand.
▲Holdings / demand up → bullish
▼Sustained outflows → bearish