Beginner's Guide · Read the direction behind the numbers
What Moves Gold
Gold pays no yield; its rivals are interest rates and the dollar. At the same time it is the haven of choice in a crisis. Its logic often runs opposite to stocks.
Next release:Oct 28 2:00 PM ET · Fed Rate Decision · TodayCalendar →
We don’t republish gold prices (the benchmark requires a license). See the latest benchmark price at LBMA →
Bullish · Current level is supportiveBearish · Current level is a headwindTwo-way · Neutral range, or depends on contextNo live data · Rules on the back
Card color shows whether the current level helps or hurts this asset; the arrow is the change from the previous reading · ↻ Tap a card for its definition, color rule & impact · ⓘ Hover for a quick noteHow are colors decided? →
Remember gold’s three traits: ① a non-yielding asset → the higher rates go, the less appealing it is; ② priced in dollars → a stronger dollar means weaker gold; ③ the ultimate safe haven → the more chaos, the more buyers.
— Rates & the Dollar (most critical)
Real Interest Rate
Current
2.66%
Nominal yield minus expected inflation
Prev. 2.66% · → unchanged
As of Oct 26
Bearish↻
↻ Back
Real Interest Rate
The higher the real rate, the greater the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Long seen as gold's most important driver, though the link has loosened since 2022.
How the color is set · < 0% Bullish · 0–1.5% Two-way · ≥ 1.5% Bearish
2-year above the fed funds rate = markets betting on hikes or no cuts, raising the expected cost of holding gold; below = betting on cuts, usually supportive for gold.
How the color is set · 2-year minus fed funds: < −0.25 Bullish · −0.25–+0.50 Two-way · ≥ +0.50 Bearish
▲2-year well above the policy rate (hikes priced) → often bearish
▼2-year below the policy rate (cuts priced) → often bullish
ETF holdings reflect investment demand; festival and wedding seasons in India and China drive physical demand.
▲Holdings / demand up → bullish
▼Sustained outflows → bearish
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