What Is Core PCE, and Why the Fed Watches It

Most inflation headlines quote CPI. The Federal Reserve does not target CPI. It targets core PCE, and the gap between the two is a recurring source of confusion about what the Fed is likely to do next.

Current
3.3%
Prev. 3.3% · As of July 2026 · Published Aug 26
Two-way

What it is

PCE excluding food & energy — the Fed's primary policy reference.

What it moves

US Stocks

Weighted more heavily than CPI and more able to sway policy. Same logic as CPI.

  • Above estimate → bearish
  • Below estimate → bullish
See all US Stocks factors →

Education only — not investment advice. The directional notes describe general tendencies, not predictions: the same data can move markets differently depending on context. Figures come from FRED and are labelled with the period they cover and the date they were published.