Latest CPI Report: What the Inflation Reading Means for Markets
CPI is the inflation number markets react to first. This page updates with every release: the latest year-over-year reading, how it compares with the month before, and what a move in either direction has tended to mean.
Next release: Oct 14 · In 3 days
— Latest reading
— About this report
The Consumer Price Index, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks the prices US consumers pay for a broad basket of goods and services. The figure here is the year-over-year change in the all-items index — headline inflation, food and energy included.
Markets care because inflation shapes what the Federal Reserve does next. A hotter reading than expected tends to push expectations toward higher rates for longer, which lifts Treasury yields and has typically weighed on stocks — growth stocks most of all. A cooler reading has tended to do the opposite.
— What a move tends to mean
These rules of thumb describe how markets have tended to react when a reading comes in above or below economists’ forecasts. Market North does not publish forecasts — the comparison on this page is with the previous reading, which is not the same thing.
Consumer Price Index
Hot inflation reinforces hike expectations, which weighs on stocks. What matters is the gap vs. expectations.
- ▲Above estimate → bearish
- ▼Below estimate → bullish
— Beyond stocks
For gold the effect cuts both ways. Higher inflation can add to its appeal as a store of value, but if the inflation scare pushes real interest rates up, that has usually weighed on gold more. Which force wins depends on how markets expect the Fed to respond.
RelatedIs Gold Really an Inflation Hedge?How Real Interest Rates Move Gold and Silver
— Recent readings
| Period | Reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 3.4% | +0.05pp |
| July 2026 | 3.3% | −0.16pp |
| June 2026 | 3.5% | −0.70pp |
| May 2026 | 4.2% | +0.39pp |
| April 2026 | 3.8% | +0.49pp |
| March 2026 | 3.3% | +0.85pp |
| February 2026 | 2.4% | +0.04pp |
| January 2026 | 2.4% | −0.26pp |
| December 2025 | 2.7% | −0.04pp |
| November 2025 | 2.7% | — |
| October 2025 | Not published | |
| September 2025 | 3.0% | +0.08pp |
“Not published” means the agency did not release a figure for that period — for example, October 2025 data that could not be collected during the government shutdown.
Figures from FRED (BLS / BEA data); release dates from FRED’s release calendar. Agencies occasionally reschedule — the official announcement always takes precedence.
Education only — not investment advice. The directional notes describe general tendencies, not predictions: the same data can move markets differently depending on context. Figures come from FRED and are labelled with the period they cover and the date they were published.